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Publications
Taxation and regulation of Norwegian alcohol and tobacco consumption. Doctoral Thesis. Defended May 21, 2026.
Cross-border shopping of alcoholic beverages: Evidence from a natural experiment. With Kyrre Rickertsen. Food Policy. January 2026. [replication scripts]
Taxation and regulation of Norwegian alcohol and tobacco consumption. Doctoral Thesis. Defended May 21, 2026.
Cross-border shopping of alcoholic beverages: Evidence from a natural experiment. With Kyrre Rickertsen. Food Policy. January 2026. [replication scripts]
Working papers
Tax insidence in a rule-based market
with James Prieger. Under review.
Tax insidence in a rule-based market
with James Prieger. Under review.
Abstract
We estimate the pass-through of an unforeseen 10% reduction in the Norwegian excise tax on wine. All studies in the tax pass-through literature face fundamental institutional challenges: (i) noise from price adjustments unrelated to tax changes, like price campaigns, seasonality, or loyalty programs, or (ii) responses in dimensions other than price, like quality adjustments. We address these problems by studying a tax reduction in the Norwegian market for alcoholic beverages, which offers an institutional setting suitable to control both challenges. Two features of this rule-based market ensure this. First, Norwegian alcohol policy is highly restrictive, prohibiting advertisement, price campaigns, and private sales of wine and hard liquor for off-premises consumption, which are only sold by the national retail monopoly, Vinmonopolet. Instead of setting prices, Vinmonopolet uses a fixed and publicly disclosed pricing rule to convert wholesale pre-tax prices into final retail prices. Second, wholesalers can change prices only three times each year. Combined with price data covering the entire market, these two characteristics facilitate a remarkably cleaner environment for studying pass-through of taxes compared to previous studies. We use a difference-in-differences setup with hard liquor as the control product to identify the effects. Our results show that the passthrough was complete, meaning that consumers received the full benefit of the tax cut. No distinguishable difference between cheap and expensive products was found.
Presented at: Nordic Public Policy Symposium 2025 [SLIDES], Skatteforum 2025 [SLIDES], the 46th annual meeting of the Norwegian Association of Economists, Skatteforum 2024
Coverage: "Avgiftskutt på vin gikk til lavere priser på polet" (in Norwegian).
From forecast to frontline: Optimizing staffing for an alcohol retail monopolist
with Ritvana Rrukaj. [download]. Under review.
From forecast to frontline: Optimizing staffing for an alcohol retail monopolist
with Ritvana Rrukaj. [download]. Under review.
Abstract
In companies where success mainly depends on balancing staffing efficiency with service quality, accurate forecasts of future demand are crucial. We study an example of this and develop seasonal ARIMA models with exogenous regressors (SARIMAX) to inform planning and staffing decisions in Vinmonopolet, the Norwegian retail monopolist for off-premises sales of wine and hard liquor. Our out-of-sample forecasts missed the aggregated national sales in 2024 by only 0.14%, outperforming Vinmonopolet’s own estimate which missed by 1%. On the store level, our forecasts have an accuracy of around 1%. Staffing based on these forecasts would bring Vinmonopolet closer to optimal staffing levels, balancing cost efficiency against desired customer service levels, compared with realized staffing in 2024.
Figure: Staffing numbers for Store 1
Notes: Optimal staffing is based on a liter per hour (LPH) measure used by Vinmonopolet. The forecasted hours is based on the out-of-sample liter forecast and the LPH measure. Dashed lines represent 80% prediction intervals (PI).
Tax expenditures and behavioural responses: The case of duty-free exemptions
with Odd E. Nygård. [working paper]. Revise and resubmit in Fiscal Studies.
Tax expenditures and behavioural responses: The case of duty-free exemptions
with Odd E. Nygård. [working paper]. Revise and resubmit in Fiscal Studies.
Abstract
Tax expenditures are the losses in revenue from exempting parts of the tax base from taxation. The conventional method for computing tax expenditures disregards behavioural effects. Using an empirically based demand model, we simulate two reform scenarios that repeal current tax expenditures related to on-arrival duty-free sales of alcohol and tobacco in Norway. The model includes both recorded and unrecorded consumption, tracking all demand responses and their impacts on the tax base. Our results suggest that incorporating these behavioural effects reduces tax expenditures calculated by the conventional approach by more than one third.
Presented at:
Figure: Consumtion of pure alcohol (1,000 liter)
Notes: The figure illustrates the estimated consumption of alcohol from recorded (taxed) and unrecored (untaxed) sources pre-reform and in the two reform scenarios. Reform 1 repeals duty-free sales upon arrival at Norwegian airports. Reform 2 sets the personal allowances for alcohol and tobacco to zero and repeals duty-free sales upon arrival at Norwegian airports. Pure alcohol figures are calculated based on the average alcohol by volume observed in recorded consumption.
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